Friday, 5 August 2016

Aug 5

Big Picture:

9:14 Working from home , If there is too much of Distraction will not trade today.
9:15 Open above PDH, initial move is up Bias is bullish.
9:17 UP move didn't sustain could be profit booking ?
9:20 Marked DO Bias is bullish. Concern is GAP of ~60 pts. 
9:21 showing weakness to go up.Is that possible IRH ?
9:26: I see 3 possibilities to happen:
Possible Trades:
1 and 3 are ruled out. 2 is good option should get a good BOF and Down Trend should be weak for that.
1 because it is CT and many DP's in between
3 Because of GAP and Nifty has moved 60 pts already. No point taking trades at extreme. And IR is not a good DP to initiate trades so early.

Looks like Scenario 3 is unfolding will let this pass
9:37 Why it has not broken IRH ? Possibly buyers expected some OF near top when they didn't find. Still Bias is bullish.
9:42 Adding 4th possible trade which is BO after some Accumulation. With trend will take it on Feel.
but we need so OF for this so atleast 1 hour of accumulation is needed.
10:00 Looks like a BW/Channel to upside if it breaks now. For sure it is channel. Have to stay out.
10:15 Getting ready for BO trade.
10:20 Took BO trade. @69 stop at 59 Need to manage this trade. Could go up as channel also.
10:26 Price moving as expected, should not see a WRB in opposite direction. If seen will scratch the trade.
10:30 Moved stop to Break even + 1 this has to reach 8700 else not interested.
10:38 Good weak pullback. it should take off from here let see how it reacts at day high.
10:41 Moved stop to 8675.
10:44 it may move very slowly to target of stop might get taken out. Will not fiddle with stop. Happy with whatever happens.
10:52 if the current bar is not a WRB expect stop to be taken out in next 3-5 min.
10:59 Stopped Out of Trade as Scratch.
**** Tea Break will re access again ****

Assessment of current Price Action

11:30 Trend is clearly on UPSIDE. Bias is Bullish.
Possible Scenarios 

1 BO space is very less (BRN). Will avoid it.
2 BOF CT avoid
3 BOF of Range low (good one)
   PP if BOF is missed then will look for PP after BOF.
4 BOF of IRH
5 Will avoid taking BOF here because if Price reach here it will be a Strong down trend.

11:45 Chances of 1 or 2 might pan out will skip both.

12:04 Price is near to Trade # 3 need to good BOF here.
12:13 Range is holding I need a BOF else let this go.
12:17 Loosing focus come back.....come back.....hmmmmmmmm
12:22 looks like flip is forming bof will be good trade.
12:27 Expected BOF here didn't happen. Will skip PP trade on top also.
12:37 Current Possible Trade

12:45 some distraction at home need to fix it.....only trade for me is at 8673 (BOF).
12:47 Am I missing some thing ? what is that WRB red candle doing ?
Is that a TRAP ? if a equal WRB is formed with Green candle ?
12:56 Nope same tight range is continuing. Building lot of pressure. Now this has sufficient power to break past BRN.
12:59 Bit hesitant to take Direct BO trade. But logically that is reasonable trade after 2 hours of consolidation.
13:03 Seeing crazy PA something is going to give away either top or bottom :)
13:09 Looks like shorts are trapped high prob for other end of range to get tested will go long @80.
13:11 FTA is range extreme which might get broken , have to deal with Bounce from BRN 8700.
13:14 Still down pressure is high it may act as BPB trade will avoid in that case. On contrary if the second attempt to break below 8670 fails then very good trade to go long. Looks like 8670 is holding but down pressure is strong.
13:18 8670 held now it will break other range extreme buy order will trigger in next 1-2 minutes.
13:22 short are trying one more time they are bailing out now.

13:26 Buy order triggered. should reach range extreme fast. if I see a WRB in opposite direction will scratch the trade.
13:37 Pullback is weak may for a PP setup or Break in next wave. Else scratch this trade.
13:47 Didn't like rejection from top scratched the Trade.
13:53 It was a good setup expected Stop order above the range to take it further up till BRN.  Looks like some Big Player wants to move the market down. 

14:20 As expected Scenario 3 is playing out. If IRH hold will go long .
14:24 Down Trend is still strong wait... wait...they might break IRH. In that case let it go.
14:27 loosing focus come back... come back........comeback...

Possible Trades#
Will ignore both trades no strength in waves.

14:42 Looks like both Bull and Bears will not push for any trades NOW.
14:47 looks like it might BO on top. Very risky trade to take. Will ignore.
14:51 Weak Trend no OF to support longs. Best to let it go. Also not worth risking for 10-12 pts.

######################TRADES TAKEN###########################
2 Trades both Scratched.
Ignored last up move as R:R didn't favored to take BO/BPB trade.


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  2. Hi Shanshak,
    Good trades.

    Are you trading in separate office? Is that only for trading?

    I am also planning to trade outside from home to avoid distraction? How was your setup in office?


    1. Hi Sunil,
      yes I trade from a office space, it is only for trading.

  3. Hi Shashank, Good analysis of PA.

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  5. Shashank

    You have written all your thoughts. The readers are going to find it very beneficial for sure. It will help them learn how to remain focused and how the thought process evolves during the day.


  6. Hi Shashank,
    In Zerodha and your charting software opening candle was wrongly coated every day, you have adjust by seeing values in trading terminal.
    Today open @ 8631, opening candle high 8682, low 8631. Regularly I adjusting it.


    1. I don't trust Zerodha open price in Pi these are ichart charts

    2. Icharts also shows wrong opening bar. You can check today's opening bar with URD's blog.

    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

    5. It boils down to who is professional in data. Definitely icharts.

  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

  8. OMG.. cant believe so much of thought process.
    For my little brain, its too much of exercise :)