Tuesday, 30 August 2016

Monday, 29 August 2016

Aug 29 2016

1> Bias is Long it is taking support on intra day levels.
2> hmm Initial move is down. it may fail at PDL. Will resist long trades as of now. No Order flow to support trade.
3> DL created, can we expect a restest here ?
4> High created , Upper range getting created.
5> Upper range
6> CT shot trade possible , BRN will definitely resist.
7> BRN resisting.  Long Trade BOF
8> PP setup it might break range extreme. Will look to target NSBRN
9> Target reached.  It may go higher I am not interested. Done for the Day.
Meeting another DP trader today  :-))..

Friday, 26 August 2016

Aug 26

1 Trade Scratched

Attempted CT trade at Range extreme. Stopped out

Thursday, 25 August 2016

Aug 25 (No Trades)

Didn't find any opportunity in morning.
Avoided Trades in afternoon. 

Wednesday, 24 August 2016

Tuesday, 23 August 2016

Aug 23 2016

Have some work will post details later if possible.
Took 2 Trades

Monday, 22 August 2016

Aug 22

Took one short Trade at 10 exit at loss.

1> Opened withing yesterday range. Could see 2 ranges PDC to PDH and PDC to PDL.
IS the First candle MC?
2> Looks like IRL , Will avoid taking short Trade  Because of space.
3>Broke PDL easily
4> MSP
5> DL
6> DL rejection Will look to short from MSP as the Bias is short.
7> Nice flip forming here. Could act as support.
8> BO
9> Second Push failed. Can look to short. Few things against favor BO is MC and Flip just below. IF there is bounce from FLIP will cover the trade.
10> Short
11> Flip is holding. Lets see if it breaks. Nope pivot is broken. Will exit.
12> Bias Turned to bullish. Will look for a Trade near 12.
13> Nope It is forming Narrow range. Range broken. No More Trades.
Done for the day.

Mistake: Should have waited for the FTA reaction. Then entered.
It was not a good BOF as there was no quick rejection. 

Friday, 19 August 2016

Aug 19

Expecting Range Day
1> DO acting as Range, will go short Target is DL / PDC if bounced then need to scratch.
2> Didn't move as expected will scratch this trade.
3, 4> BO of the Range. BOF of DH. Will avoid taking 2nd trade from the same DP, + BW in this range might not yield much.
5> Good momentum, ooh Brok PDC/DL didn't expected that.
6> Support at PDL, Looks to be good support.
7> Support again
8> Moving up, BOF of PDC/PDL.
9> Short  hmm Bounce will scratch this trade.
Done for the day.

Thursday, 18 August 2016

Aug 18

1 Trade Scratched.
Mistake: Took BO trade, considering HFT, should have scratched at +3 pts when 2 push also failed.

9:15 Initial Move is up for a  PP kind of setup . withing yesterday range will look for a BOF setup.
9:43 TST kind of setup to go short. Will let it pass. DO is 10 pts away we need a strong BOF to break the lower DP.
9:48 looks like TST failed. Its going back to DH/PDH. Not a strong move looks like it will BW there.
Waiting for BPB is a good option. Lets see.
9:51 some orderflow which is resisting up move but why ? I don't see any urgency to break the TOP.
10:16 stuck in indecision BW. Lets stay out.
10:18 Interesting looks like movement to upside. will it give a BPB trade or just move up ?
Upside space is 20 or may be less. Will make sense to take this trade only at 80 
10:19 overall looks like a mediocre trade. If a strong BOF worth attempting as space after DO is hugh. Will look for failure of this breakout. Else let go of Upside trade.
10:22 Looks like a BPB trade. At max I need to exit at 6700. which is 17 pts away from my entry. Will let go this trade. Also this BO was not set to my liking
I look for atleast 25 pts trades. Else let go.
10:30 ok BO good move. Let see what happen at BRN. Bias is UP above PDH cannot enter any trades right now. Should allow some consolidation.
10:47 It was suppose to take support on BRN why it didn't . Is it BW in making ?
11:15 BW let it play out as long as it wants
12:30 Can we act at BRN ?
13:00 Big candle , resisted at BRN ? There is no Strong rejection , Bias is up. Shall we look for a BPB trade ?
13:13 BRN is risk DP will take confirmed trades only.
13:26 OK this is PP setup will go long FTA is 10 pts away if that break we are in for 50 pts trade.
13:30 Long order triggered at 8701 stop at 8793 Target at 8750. 
13:43 rejection but took support at the DP our entry is acting is Flip will hold the trade.
13:59 looks like bulls are not finding it easy will move stop to 95. Ideally 700 flip should hold. Lets see.
14:02 hold on are we in channel ?
14:05 Scratched:

14:12 woo 30 pts fall. Why ? any news ? Didn't find any. It is a technical fall then hmm ok.

Reaccess situation:
14:26 Time left 45 min.
for down trend PP can be tried. BPB will eat up into profit.
Good trade would be reversal back to DH.
14:30 Reversal Trade will be somewhat V shape. 
14:33 Very Tricky to take trade under such circumstances. No option but to wait..
14:45 No point taking any Trade. Done for the Day.

Wednesday, 17 August 2016

Aug 17

2 Trades both Scratched.

1> Initial Move to upside unable to sustain above PDC.
2> BOF,
3> Short trade.
4> Not able to move as expected. Back inside DO range. hmm 
5> Trade scratched.
6> can this for a PP set up to break below ?
Nope Scratched
7> Good up move why stalled at top ?
Is it a range day can I expect a BOF on TOP ?
DO can Act a FTA for this trade.
8> Crazy PA should wait for more feel.
9> Why is IRL coming into picture now . This is also DP -- DO. hmm interesting.
10> Why such a strong move ? 
11> There could be OF to take this higher. It is not set properly so avoiding
Good strong BO will it give a pullback or just takeoff from here. If it takes off should let it go.
12> Why such a deep pullback. This could be BOF or a new small range on top.
13> Looks like Good BOF failure. Risk management will be issue. what to do 
Also this could act as a range also.patience is the king :)..
Also MC candle might act as range. Will avoid taking any trade here.
14> Reached other extreme without giving a good entry. Looking at this this might give a PP set up or a BPB.
BPB is ruled out. is PP a good bet ?
Potential for PP trade. Lets see 
15> Short at 40. Target will be 8601. Measured Move in picture. Provided PDL gives in. Looking at Trend strength it looks to Break.
16> Trade Scratched at the pivot.
17> 3 things can happen either reversal where in we can go long at the range with a BPB entry or a BW  or the Trend might continue to reach our Target (part of the game).
Looks like BW will continue for rest of the session. Cannot take a PP trade as we didn't get BOF. Best is to close the trades.

Done for the Day.

Tuesday, 16 August 2016

Thought Process for Aug 16

1> Strong initial move, why it is not able to break PDC. BOF of PDC
2> Will go long above this point.
3> Might be Pullback lets wait.
4> Wave is very weak. Scratch the trade.
5> Look for short trade now
6> Possible trade is PP at range low or BPB.
7>Pressure built can take entry here Context supports it. Short here
BO . Pullback is weak will hold the trade. Stop at Break even.
8>Second push failed. 
Covered the trade.
Bias is down
Look for a BOF trade at range extreme.
9> BO will wait for it to fail. Context wise it is not a good BO. Question is will it fail.
10> Nope took support going high.
11> Good move up should I change my bias to long ?
12> Why it has not crossed the range is the Trend strength diminishing.
2 Tests failed to cross the range. Will look to short.
13> Will look to go short. hmm No time for trade to move reaching last stages of trade. Lets close the day. DONE..

Always build the story and look from that context. Rest all is Tactics to take trade BPB,BOF , PP, BO..

Aug 16

2 Trades
1st Scratched
2nd good.
Fluid Below PDC , was very sure to get big trade there.
1> NF opened in last corrective wave. BOF from PDC went long. 2 push failed to go higher.Should have scratched there. Waited for one more push. Will not repeat such mistake in future.

2> Bias changed to short. Gave a good PP setup. Covered on bounce from BRN.

Didn't get good entry to go long on last wave. IF there was time would have attempted short Trade below the pivot.
Done for the day...

Monday, 15 August 2016

Some Additions to MSP post

Uday gave some inputs on Marking MSP. Please take a look makes more sense.

Remember we need to constantly adjust adapt for MSP , these methods will give more clues for approximation.

Please Bear in mind what ST said in last line.
"As usual do not think too technical and do not be too rigid in your definitions. Now forget everything .Keep it simple. If a swing pivot looks prominent, treat it as MSP and watch price action around this area.
“If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it's a duck"


Niftytrader hope this pic will be able to convey what I meant.
I saw a similar pic long back. I imagine this to steer away from Bad quality Trades.

Build Context with Trend , Range, DP, Space, CM, OF, Risk then pull the Trigger.

Good Trade

Bad Trade

Sunday, 14 August 2016

Traders Journey

Amit hope this answers your question:

Almost all find it difficult to transition from professional career to Trading Career.
A lot is written on Stages of career just do a google search it will give(4-6) Stages in general to pass
through. Everyone has to go through it. Only Exception being if you are born in Trading family. Just like
son of Businessman/ Actors.

One good thing about trading anyone can succeed provided you focus on right skill set with intent.Only then learning curve becomes shorter.

Personally I think you just need 3 skills to succeed in this career.
1> Technical Skills (30%)
2> Focus Skills (35%).
3> Gratitude Skills (35%).

Let me explain:
Technical Skills : You need to be confident in what you are doing that is technical skill. Because of this you will read the market and Take Action.

Rest 2 Skills are related to Action and Reaction Part.

Focus Skills: Quality of Action depends on Quality of Focus.This is one of the profession where you are punished mercilessly every time you make mistake.
Most of the mistakes happen because you are not focused.
Mistake happen when you are either lazy or Tensed. Focus is somewhere in between of these 2. Learn to identify that sweet spot in between.
In short you give in to impulsive behavior if you are not in a state of relaxed focus.

Gratitude skills: This is learning to be centered for the reaction that happens after your action. To come to the point what happens when you take the trade.
Scratch -- Focus required to Scratch the Trade
Winner  -- Gratitude required to stay centered
Looser -- Gratitude required to stay centered.

How to practice gratitude : Gratitude is being Grateful / Thankful/ Humble. Let me explain
Suppose you are watching market without gratitude you take trade it turnout to be looser what will be your reaction? You get angry/sad/ Negative reaction not good in this profession.

What is Gratitude?

you are in coffee shop someone asks for 100 rupees will you give ?????
Imagine you had near death experience of falling from a cliff and got saved at last movement . you come thankful for your life being spared and  relax in a coffee shop now someone asks for 100 Rs. I bet you will give away 200 Rs and still  be happy with it.

Gratitude is the same kind of feeling you need to carry before taking each trade. It should be part of trade plan. Before taking trade develop a great sense of gratitude and take the trade. This will build you with enough emotional capital to take hits from market and be ok with it.

Few people watch the market with gratitude entire day. Like they keep thanking market for moving because each movement gives them opportunity to have purest form of financial independence (Trading). Without movement there will not be any Trading job.
Other Way would be to think with every loosing trade you are closer to a profitable trade and you have seen off loosing trade successfully.
One more way would be to make a list of things you are grateful for . Call it a Gratitude list for which you are thankful.

3 Skills
Technical Skill (Which bus to take)
Focus (avoids mistakes Action)
Gratitude (Avoids mistake post Action).
Simple but trust me not easy to practice...

Saturday, 13 August 2016

Bi Weekly Analysis

Did 2 Mistakes one with Exit and 2nd with personal Management
Exit : Didn't Exit at 2nd Push failure, was in hoping state that this trade will go.
Stress: Missed a Major move that day. (soon after announcement). To be honest was bit frustrated.

I have return a post on Understanding the System Just to add to that
This system Expects you to be part Human / Part Machine :).
Human to get the feel
Machine for Execution. One has to do the Juggling act perfectly :).

If you look at both the errors both where psychological. 
1>Exit was Greed
2>Stress was Fear (Fear of missing another good Trade). What is funny is I was not ready to accept this even at the end of that day. Only on Second review I can Personally accept my mistake.

Goal for coming weak:
I have been working on these weakness for Quite some time. They have reduced substantial but they still exit. I know it is human to repeat mistake will not beat my self on this.
Will be aware of situations under which these psychological issue creep up.
Situation 1 When a big move is missed.
Situation 2 When Greed is playing out.
All I want to do is be aware of this nothing much. If we force too much it will backfire.

OK with Win rate and R:R ratio of > 2. That means Quality of my trades are good.
Not taking bad quality Trade.

Technical Issues:
Technically looks Like BPB is my weak area will improve on that in coming week.

Direct BO

Hi Sourish hope this answers your question:

Lets Understand Dynamics of BO.
Consider Long BO trade
1> First and Foremost you need exits / Stop loss Trigger
2> New Traders to fuel in the move.

Point 2 is not possible to predict but if you can predict Point 1 then you can enter Trade early and scratch if new participation is not found.

So lets focus on Point 1 (Stop loss Trigger).
Stop loss Trigger can happen 2 condition
1> Lot of consolidation has happened 1-2 hours, which has create SL order on top and bottom of the range.. Eventually one of the side will give up.
If this is the case always access the Trend and go with the Trend never take counter Trend BO.
You can also watch how the PA unfolds in the channel which gives clues
like A ascending Triangle / BOF at the other range extreme

2> PP setup near Prominent DP (MSP). Also here Stick with Trend.
Remember PP setups are very common at FAG end of the Day. Where it is BOF of DL and PP near MSP Most of the time. Like the one on 11-Aug.

3> If you are Attempting reversal Trades (Earlier post Against Trend) some time they give a PP setup after BOF.

Always take BO with Trend, Attempt BO(PP) at FAG end of the day(reversal).

BO Consolidation With Trend
BO PP Setup With Trend / Ranging (BOF,PP) Usually near DL/PDL
BO PP Setup Reversal (CM, BOF, PP) At DL.

Rest ignore...

PS: if you are learning the system Just stick with BOF you will understand Nuances of BO with Time.

Very sleepy feel free to ask if you need more clarity will add further. Such topic you can keep going for pages.

Friday, 12 August 2016

Trend Bias CT Reversals

Amit hope this post answers your question:

Trend and Bias

Imagine this Scenario:
You have to catch rain water
You are in middle of road where buses are plying for both left and right side.

What will you do ?
First logical step would be to decide which side to go Left or Right.
This decision to go Left or right is BIAS.

How will you decide which side to go ?
1> You will check which side it is raining heavily left or right , by check weather forecast, Call friends on both side... etc.

Similarly in Trading you need to decide which side to go LONG/SHORT --> This is BIAS.
How will you decide which side to go ?
By assessing Trend. Which ever side the Trend is strong you go with that.

How to asses Trend Strength?
3 Methods
1> Look how ranges are forming one above another or one below another
2> Look at Impulsive and corrective wave
3> PDH --> Above / Below.

CT and Reversal Trades#
CT --> Counter Trend Trade
If you Try to take Trade at A, B it is CT Trades, Very Dangerous Never do this.
If you initiate Trades at 1 and 2 they are Trend Trade. 
Analyze Trend and create the Bias and Stick with it.

Reversal Trades#
This will be CT trades but the Context give indication that Trend may reverse

1> CM is long , that is max number of traders participated in the rally because of small regular pullbacks
2> Fluid area will be created (no BW kind of waves in the range).
3> Trend shows weakness near DP and Give a BOF near to it.

This is the Time you look to take Reversal Trade (Remember this is CT). But Risk to reward will be quite huge. 1:10 may be more some time. So you pull the trigger.
Managing the Risk.

Hope this helps..

Aug 12

Was Not Trading just watching. Will be back to trading from Tuesday...
Hind sight analysis#

1> Opened above PDH initial move is up, above PDH, Bias is up
2> BPB trade to long.
3> First push
4> Second push
5> Moved stop here expecting this to reach BRN
6> Strength is weak will exit booked.
7> Unexpected move this could act as range watchout
8> slow move to up
9> BW kind of action.
10> BW
11> Not a good BO to initiate long.
12> BO failed. back into BW.
13> Not expecting much.
14> Done for the day..

Understand the System Understand required Psychology

In DP system we wait for Order Flow imbalance
Personally this was the Turning Point in my career as trader.
What is Order Flow:

How Market Moves ?
Market moves up when Bids hit the current price.
Moves Down when Ask hit the current price.

What are we looking for ?
Excessive imbalance in Bids / Ask so that Market makes a Accelerated move.

Who are Responsible for this ?
Market Consists of Day Trades, Market Makers, Long Term Traders.
For Our DP system we are interested in Day Traders.
Market Makers are not bothered how market moves they are paid by stock exchange for stabilizing market. To avoid crash moves.
Long Term Traders are seen occasionally (During Type 1 day). 

Crux of DP system:
Non Random move happen till Next DP this could be BOF/BPB.
So we initiate Trade from DP. This is the Place where traders take call 

This happens  for Just 1-2 Times in a day and for a very less Duration.

Now Coming to the point if this is how system works Let get some Metric of the System
6hours 15 minutes (9:15 - 3:30 PM) 375 M
Average Trades per Day(Few days 0 Trade, few days 1-2) 1.5
Average Time on a Trade 30 M
% percentage of time in Action 8
Decision Taking Time 30 M
% Percentage time taken to make Decision 8
Total Time where actual focus is required Decision time + Average Trade Time 60 M

Which is approx 18-20%.

Rest 80% of time you have to practice waiting. Learn the art of waiting. 
80% of your work is to wait. You have to do this properly. This has to suite you personality.
System is not for restless person.

Go through your trade logs if you are taking more than 2 trade on average per day you are not practicing patience.

Hope I am able to convey why Patience/Waiting is important in this system.
By Waiting I mean focused waiting. 

Thursday, 11 August 2016


Hi Prakash hope this post answers your question

Market moves in waves. Impulsive and corrective wave.
Impulsive are Major Trend and corrective Wave are minor trend.
MSP are dynamic dp that are created because of this.

Take a look at above diagram:
1> Red Channel is impulsive wave.
2> Green Channel is corrective wave.
Overall Trend is down.

What are MSP#
Extremes where the Minor trend changes and Major Trend continues can be considered as MSP
We had 2 point from Yesterday PA which can be called as MSP.
Break of these can lead to Trend reversal . BOF of these can lead to Trend continuation.

Ideally area marked 1 should have continued with major Trend down that didn't happen.
Then it created PP set up near MSP indicating Change of Trend.
But it stopped at next MSP to continue Down Trend.

Let me know if this is clear..

Thanks To Uday for this.
I think this makes perfect sense and give more opportunities.
Majorly we trade Micro Trends. Here marked in red is Micro Trend Down then Blue is Micro Trend UP.
Change in Trend happens when Last Swing Pivot of down Trend is Broken. In this case Point 6.

Note: What is more important is to see how the PA unfolds while reaching this point.

Aug 11

I didn't Trade today, was watching market though with all background music of repair work.

1> Market opened near PDC/PDL.(very near)
2> IRL ?
3>BOF of BRN
4> Space is issue. PDC/PDL very near less than 10 points better to ignore
5> Bulls dominating
6> Bulls in control
7> PP long trade
8> Exit when second attempt failed.
9> Unexpected move
10> BRN broken Bears in control. Trap/BOF Trade short
11> Rejection from Day low cover the trade.
12> Trend is still strong on downside
13> Lower lows forming potential BO trade to Bottom
14> BOF Long
15> Covered.


Amit hope this answers your question..
This is pic from ST blog. look in comment section

Wednesday, 10 August 2016

Aug 10

2 Trades
1st BPB went well.
2nd BOF reversal trade CT. Had to scratch.
I will be on Vacation till next Tuesday Not going out. Some renovation work at office so not a good idea to trade.  Will be back after that.

Explanation of Today PA#
1> Previous day corrective wave could act as range.
Initial Move was fierce back into Previous day range
2>Waited for pullback which was weak.
3> Short at 3
4>  4 was target but it broke very well so trade held.
5> Second attempt failed to move hence booked at 5
6> Thought it was DL
7> Is market indicating actual level
Was hoping for a PP trade or BPB trade at top of the range
8> Small flip formed, would have gone long if a BOF was seen. One can see some bulls where interested to take it up.
9> Possible of DL one more test , pivot at 11 CT trade to go long, R:R is good end of the day.
12> Entry acted as flip held the trade.
13> Exit when Flip broken.
14> High chances of this being a BW (Reason being BW is formed when BULL and Bears fight at a region.) So stay out.
Done for the day....

Have one more observation will post it shortly..
Feel for Market
Few years back when some I used to wonder How does one feel the market it is not a physical object to touch.
But if focused properly market can be felt. You need to feed some data to your gut to get that feel.
In my view there are only 2 way to get feel for market
1> Put on a trade with some size. (reason being you tend to focus with all your intent on market because of reward)
2> Analyze important bars.

Will try to explain:
1> Big bar looks important immediately taken over by Bull bar which is equally prominent. Looks like bulls are pitching in.
     Changing Bias to Bullish. Put a reward so that you are more focused. Example will go for a coffee break if bull reach other extreme. This will tag you brain.

2> Week follow through this wave might not go all the way to other extreme.
3> WRB red then WRB green hmm fight is happening bull are buy at  that levels Bias is long
4> Poor follow through (no bear orders triggered).
5> Another attempt by bulls to trigger stop orders not successful
6> Weak Bear bars....continuing
7> Entire entire bull attempt to go up neutralized. But Bears are not showing strong intent to move down.
    Changing Bias to Bearish. Put a reward will go for Tea if this reaches extreme and BO
8> Small Flip formed.
9> Bull taken over hmm bears are gaining strength
10>Strong Bear bar.. Bears are gaining strenght.
11> Strong tails looks like Bears are push down with lot of intent.
12> Hmm expected BO which failed , this could trap Bears.
13>  Let see another attempt failed. Bears are trapped.

Attach some reward when market does as you expect (coffee, tea..). This will keep you focused.

Trade go long above Pivot
Flip should hold, hmm flip broken exit.

Tuesday, 9 August 2016

Aug 9

Big Picture
RBI announcement Day: No Trades till announcement.
Announcement expect soon
Crazy PA
11:19 Surprised to see lack of moment is this a range kind of day ?
Will the prices stay inside the range which are already formed ?
Possible Trades
11:41 Recognized 4 Ranges
and possible Trades.

11:42 entered from range 3 to Range 2 no rejection seen. Will be careful taking short Trade here.
11:44 feel indecision not able to take call will wait for more confirmation or let let go of this trade.
11:45 As decided will let this trade pass unless weakness in bulls is confirmed.
12:05 Now ranges are clear
12:07 Only Trade I have is short at PDL. Good DP to go short.

12:37 For some reason Measure moves keep working again and again :)
With this I think down move has ended. It may consolidate for some time before continue down
Or give us short entry near MSP/BRN.
So wait wait... patience....

12:56 Seeing 8686 as MSP this could be place to take short trade. 
13:04 something cooking at 85
13:10 Planning to go short here
13:12 Short at 76 will see how 66 DL behave. Ready to scratch if it is not a BO of DL.
13:22 Trade scratched. Looks like Down Trend strength is slowing down.
13:26 Looking to take short trade at BRN or MSP.
13:35 It didn't moved from MSP as expected. So no OF trapped. 
13:37 is it reversal up trend looks strong.
13:39 if this doesn't move up then longs are trapped will be good violent move down. Lets see.
13:48 Longs are failing I see a juicy setup to go short below 8684.
13:49 longs trying very hard to sustin the level and move till 8700.
13:51 Gaining strength. Lets wee how they go from here. If they fail will be good move down.
13:53 Nope(longs) are gaining strength. Bulls plz slow down :)..
13:55 Nope longs are in strong position they will test 8700 for sure.
13:59 Another attempt to go long failed. if there is rapid rejection / Fall will go short at 8683.
Else it could be a channel going up then stay out. hmm
is it a channel ?
14:10 why is that level defended so heavily ?
14:11 If I go by what prices are doing going short below this level of 8683 is a good trade. Not sure why that is being defended. Lets check volume once 
14:13 Clearly bulls have retained this session.
14:13 is BPB a good trade to look at. on the on set it will be a CT trade. so let see if we can get a good BOF near BRN.
I see one Danger channel move to BRN will lead to BW so be very very careful
3 Ranges and Possible BW what to do ?

14:20 I think only possible good trade is BOF at the MSP lets see. LOL ?

14:22 Remember there is a strong FLIP at 83 so it has to be a Strong BOF to take short.
14:23 Nope looks like a good BO and it is holding in that range :(. 
14:39 Short at 8698 stop at 8712.
Scratched at -6 pts.
Done for the day..

In Hind sight : Could have avoided that trade took it with FOMO I think. Not sure...
after Thoughts:
If I think about it I did the right thing. This was a BPB which failed. So when short. May be could have waited for Channel to break that is the learning to take from today. Will keep that in mind.